Happy June! This week felt notably lighter to write about (knock on wood).
The Ebola outbreak continues overseas, but domestically, the common cold and ticks are commanding most of the attention. We’ll also check in on Covid-19 and the vaccine rollout, where the dominoes of the federal process are starting to wobble.
This left plenty of room today for good news and a time to celebrate (quite literally, as you will see below) scientific advancements, which have become my favorite section of the newsletter.
Let’s dive in.
After a few unusually eventful weeks, ticks are still keeping us on a rollercoaster. Emergency room visits for tick bites dipped briefly, then rose significantly again. We haven’t hit a record-breaking peak, but the season is running earlier than usual, so the cumulative burden is mounting. If this pace continues, it’s shaping up to be a rough tick season overall.
Those in the Northeast are feeling the brunt of it, followed by the Midwest. Although ticks are really everywhere.
Data: CDC; Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist.
What this means for you: Enjoy the outdoors! But if you’re in a tick-prone area, take that extra minute to do a tick check. The most important thing is removing the tick properly (use fine-tipped tweezers, grab close to the skin, pull upward, no twisting, no Vaseline, no matches).
Then watch for symptoms: fever, rash, fatigue, joint aches. If you find an attached tick and are in a high-risk area for Lyme disease, it’s worth calling your doctor if it was attached for more than 36 hours. Here is a YLE deep dive on ticks.
We are finally reaching a point where almost all respiratory viruses are on the decline. Common cold viruses appear to have peaked after a higher season than last year.
PIV (parainfluenza virus) is also nearing its peak, which is worth noting for a slightly different reason. Unlike the common cold, PIV is particularly significant for babies, as it is a leading cause of croup and bronchiolitis. As you can see in the graph below, it is less common, though.
Data: CDC; Annotated by Hannah at Your Local Epidemiologist.
What this means for you: If you’re sick, it’s likely the common cold. Rest and fluids really do help boost your immune system.
I haven’t given an update in a while. While the acceleration has slowed down, measles is still spreading. It’s basically endemic at this point: jumping from unvaccinated pocket to unvaccinated pocket.
In the U.S., there are three active outbreaks public health officials are paying attention to:
- Utah is in its eleventh month with active community transmission.
- Virginia is where my eyes are right now. The outbreak is still small (64 cases) but growing quickly, with 21 cases in the past week. The vaccination rate in the community (Buckingham County) is low (84.9%).
- Pennsylvania outbreak with 38 cases (six new cases in the past week).
Source: PopHIVE; Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist.
What this means for you: If you’re up to date on vaccines, you remain very well protected. If you have a child under 12 months old and are in/around these areas, they can get vaccinated early. Here are the top 10 questions on measles protection answered.
Every summer since Covid-19 arrived, we have had a wave. And lately, summer waves are larger than winter ones (but continue to decline in severity due to immunity). Here’s where things stand.
What’s the current Covid situation? Levels remain very, very low. There may be a slight increase in some areas if you squint closely at the data (like in Texas and Florida, and maybe the Midwest), but it’s not showing up across all metrics. In other words, we’re not in a wave yet.
The Cicada variant (BA.3.2) received some attention a few weeks ago but has been circulating for some time without making much of an impact. The growing variant is XFG, which is still a descendant of Omicron.
Should I get a spring vaccine? The recommendation stands: vulnerable individuals, particularly those over 65, should still get both a fall and spring vaccine. Year over year, vaccination continues to provide 50–60% additional protection for high-risk individuals compared to those who skip it. If you’ve been trying to time a shot before the next wave, that window may be approaching.
Will we have a Covid-19 vaccine this fall? Yes, I think so, but the path to get there will be bumpy.
Think of our annual respiratory vaccine rollout as a giant domino setup. When the first domino falls—usually in February—the rest follow in a smooth, synchronized sequence, ending with shots in arms by early fall.
Last week, external advisors to FDA met to recommend an updated strain for this fall’s vaccine and voted to use the XFG strain. This differs from the WHO’s recommendation (LP.8.1). Strain differences between the U.S. and WHO aren’t entirely unusual—the U.S. typically targets the closest-matching strain for precision, while the WHO prioritizes broader coverage to accommodate countries with less flexibility to update quickly. Immunologically, the U.S. approach makes more sense.
But now the subsequent dominoes in the process of getting a vaccine may start wobbling.
The next step would normally be an ACIP meeting, but there is currently no ACIP, which is unprecedented. Two possible pathways are now in play, and both may end up being used:
- The standard federal pathway (blue below). Either an ACIP is chartered (a long shot), or the ACIP step is bypassed entirely, and the CDC director signs off on the vaccine independently.
- An alternative pathway (purple below) was developed last year by external organizations in response to federal disarray. Many states have already decoupled from ACIP and are instead following guidance from professional bodies like the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Vaccine Integrity Project (VIP). VIP will be meeting soon to review the evidence, enabling professional organizations to issue their own recommendations, which will then prompt health systems and physicians to begin ordering vaccines.
Key limitation: This pathway doesn’t resolve the issue of ordering and distributing vaccines purchased through federal programs, most notably Vaccines for Children.
Vaccine approval process with possible alternative pathways. Figure by Your Local Epidemiologist.
What this means for you: If you’ve been trying to time your Covid-19 spring vaccine before a wave, that moment may be getting close, though it’s still unclear. As for fall, I’m confident vaccines will be available, but expect some confusion and uncertainty in the run-up. But they will be there.
- Standing ovation for pancreatic cancer survival study. During a national cancer convention (ASCO) over the weekend, results from a Phase III clinical trial of a pancreatic cancer drug were announced, and the room erupted in applause. This is really rare, but it also signals the beauty of the discovery. What did scientists find? Patients taking a new, experimental drug lived nearly twice as long as patients offered standard chemotherapy. Daraxonrasib reduced the risk of death by 60% compared with chemotherapy. Pancreatic cancer is a devastating disease, with a low survival rate, and is really hard to target with drugs. While this isn’t on the market yet, there seems to be major hope on the horizon.
- Major health insurers announced they will cover all vaccines at no cost through 2027, regardless of what ACIP, federal disarray, and ideological preferences say. This is incredibly abnormal, as they usually wait for federal guidance, but great news and, quite frankly, just the right thing to do.
- Americans are increasingly treating mental health like physical health. This news is a little older, but worth celebrating as we close out mental health awareness month: More than one in three Americans said they planned to make a mental health-related resolution this year, with younger adults ages 18–34 leading the trend at 58%. Growing cultural normalization of mental health care is itself a public health win, as stigma has historically been a major barrier to treatment.
- An obesity drug may not just “melt fat,” but also decrease inflammation that drives heart disease, joint pain, and diabetes. Lilly is testing a new drug called retatrutide, a weekly injection that targets three hormones for weight loss. In its latest clinical trial results, released this month, participants lost an average of 71 pounds over about a year and a half and also made significant improvements in markers of heart disease and overall inflammation. The addition of glucagon targeting helps the body to burn fuel, enabling greater weight loss and likely accounting for the additional benefits over earlier GLP-1 drugs. The drug isn’t approved yet, and more safety and effectiveness data are coming, but the early results are strong. If future trials hold up, this could become a single-shot treatment for obesity, diabetes, inflammation, and their related health problems all at once.
- Global teamwork (without the U.S.) towards health. The 79th World Health Assembly—whose theme was “Reshaping global health: a shared responsibility”—ended with 193 member states (notably the U.S. is no longer a member) agreeing on 20 decisions and passing 13 resolutions on a variety of health issues, including stroke, liver disease, tuberculosis, antimicrobial resistance, diagnostic imaging, emergency care, precision medicine, and radiation.
- Ebola patients were discharged from the hospital. Five patients were cured of the Bundibugyo Ebola virus: four left the treatment center today, and another had already returned home. As Helen Branswell, from STAT, noted, “communities can distrust treatment centers, because loved ones go in & often don’t come out alive. Hopefully, word of survivals will encourage people to seek care rather than staying home. Improves their survival chances & lowers risk to family members.” Ebola can be defeated.
While ticks and common colds are brewing, the quieter week allows us to recognize the quiet science marching forward. This week brought results targeting the two leading killers of Americans, heart disease and cancer. That is always worth celebrating.
Love, YLE
Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) comprises a team of experts, ranging from physicians to immunologists to epidemiologists to nutritionists, working together with one goal: to “Translate” ever-evolving public health science so that people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. YLE suite of newsletters reaches over 475,000 people across more than 132 countries. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:
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