WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. May 7, 2008 UPDATED May 8, 2008:

It’s all going according to plan.

Barack Obama’s faltering in the stretch, the media’s unfailing cooperation with America’s political establishment, combined with Senator Obama’s main character flaw as a politician (his sense of decency), has been exploited by the Clinton campaign to frustrate Mr. Obama’s ability to achieve a first ballot Presidential nomination at the Democratic convention.

As I wrote months ago, the Clinton strategy is to deny Mr. Obama the first ballot nomination, freeing up the pledged delegates and the Super Delegates to hand it to Mrs. Clinton on the second or third ballot, with the rationale that Mrs. Clinton has shown the ability to win the big electoral states more than Senator Obama.

Doesn’t anyone see this except me?

In the remaining primaries there are 217 votes at stake. If Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton split them, Obama falls short by about 100 votes. If Mrs. Clinton runs the table winning them all as she is expected to do, it is a dead heat on first ballot.

The Michigan/Florida controversy and how the Party that staged this mess deals with that issue could cost Obama the nomination and ultimately the Democratic Party the Presidency.  The Party’s petty refusal to recognized Michigan and Florida early primaries now looks downright foolhardy.

Michigan has 128 pledged delegates and 28 Super Delegates. Florida, 185 pledged delegates and 25 Super Delegates.

There is a plan to split them out there which would give Obama 156 votes that would if the remaining primaries are split with Obama getting 108 votes give him the nomination 1,815 plus 264 votes equals 2,079.

(As of May 8, the count now stands at 1,847, Obama, 1,647, Clinton, after the final counts were in.)

If Michigan and Florida continue to not be counted, it is far more realistic to assume there will be a deadlock on the first ballot.

Hence the importance of how Michigan and Florida are counted. Will the committee free up the delegates to vote any way they please on first ballot? (Delegates are in the process of being credentialed now according to an Associated Press report.)

It is conceivable that a decision will be made freeing up the Michigan Florida delegates to vote as they see fit – ignoring the primary results in which Obama did not campaign.

Not only that, but if Michigan and Florida are invited in to the party, it is even more likely there will be a deadlock on the first ballot, because the number of delegate votes needed for first ballot nomination goes up to over 2,200.

On other hand, seating the delegations and splitting the votes could give Obama the nomination on the first ballot.

The Democratic National Committee will make that decision. Whose side will they come down on? Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton? Who do you think?

Freeing them up and seating them to vote, throwing out the results of the two primaries is Mrs. Clinton’s best chance, and the Democratic Party’s most face-saving move. But it is not good for Mr. Obama. I reckon it would guarantee a First ballot deadlock.

Another possibility is to give half votes to pledge delegates and full votes to the Michigan/Florida Super Delagates that would also cleverly deny Obama a first ballot nomination.

So what if there is a first ballot deadlock?

Perhaps I am naïve and I will believe that the labor leaders, the party stalwarts, the key office holders who comprise the Super Delegates will blow off the Clinton machine that has been running the party for sixteen years – and on ballot two – ignore the pressure and( there will be pressure) and award the nomination to Mr. Obama after the pledged delegates are released.

Right.

The Denver Dumping of Obama is all set up.

The Clintonista mantra was in full chant Tuesday evening on CNN. Again and again the theme was sounded: she was more electable; she has more attractiveness to white middle class voters, the polls show her beating Senator McCain. The Obama pundits had little to throw against these Barack bombs that had the purpose of being a self-fulfilling prophecy: that even though Mr. Obama pulled more votes, votes in primaries do not matter.

Except in Florida and Michigan, that is.

The May 31^st Democrat meeting to decide how the votes of those two states will be handled at the convention is pivotal. If those votes are allowed in to be counted, that adds two more states into the Clinton column. Again, with the talk of how excluding those states from the convention on the propaganda outlets last night, you could see the framework and justification for counting Florida and Michigan at the convention being justified.  (“We can’t win the general election if we do not make peace with Florida and Michigan, so we just have to let their votes count in the election.”)  Mrs. Clinton with the face of a vampiress sinking her elongated bicuspids into Mr. Obama’s jugular, her eyes gleaming made this a telling point in her Indiana victory speech.

Mr. Obama made what looks to be a fatal tactical error in not pushing for a revote to be held in those states (obviously because he felt he did not need to, and seemed to be cruising to the nomination last spring), he is not going to win any revote there. The Michigan and Florida delegates are going to go to the Clinton camp.

Can you feel it, friends?

I sensed real unease on the part of Obama supporters in the soundbites I heard last night.

They have every reason to feel uneasy.

Their candidate has been at a loss to combat this Clinton groundswell.

And why is that?

Mr. Obama has played by the rules of the party, and now subtlely, he has been assuming the knowing look of the Coyote in the Roadrunner cartoons, of late, realizing too late that he has been set up. That the party never meant to really not count Ohio and Michigan. That despite his commercials and spending, his message of hope, change, and reason has gotten lost in the media handling of the Jeremiah Wright thing – which this commentator predicted would happen months ago. Mr. Obama was not “swift-boated,” he was “pulpited.”

Still – the media’s failure to make an equal amount of coverage to Mr. McCain’s official pastor-endorser and that pastor’s equally offensive pronouncements – shows to the media’s everlasting lack of news judgment – a distinct effort to derail the Obama campaign with a non-issue.

Who cares what one pastor thinks?

If you’re a white “Christian pastor” expressing hatred with over-the-top views, as Mr. McCain’s endorsing pastor is, well, that’s OK.  If you’re a black pastor, well according to CNN, FOX and the like – well hey, that’s espousing hatred – and Obama should disassociate himself. And remember, Mr. Obama never appeared to this reporter’s knowledge with Mr. Wright in a presidential endorsing media event as Mr. McCain’s did.

Talk about your double-standard. Talk about concentrating on minutiae while thebigger issues of windfall gas profits, foreclosures, Wall Street bailouts, Federal Reserve Discounting like Korvettes. Are there any News Directors any  more?

Just a slight double standard. Let’s face it. The media was given something to use against Obama and perhaps were “told” they  should use it. They had something to report about John McCain on an absolutely parallel situation and downplayed it.

Wonder why?

Senator Obama is a threat to the establishment that runs this country. The establishment cuts across party lines and has worked for years together. The last eight years a little too closely. 

So, when a commentator said last night – a Republican commentator – said that the Democratic nominee will be chosen by Super Delegate Elitists – which was vehemently denied by a Democrat super delegate, the Republican was saying a little more than she should.

She was right.

Look for more Obama-discrediting to follow in the next month or two.

How the Senator confronts this created groundswell against him is the political crisis of his life.

He has to come out swinging now and put the Super Delegates on the spot.

He has to challenge them and not in a nice guy way, either.

What will work to save him?

Meanwhile, the ground has been laid: You have to hand it to the Democratic Party. The Republicans have lead this country to the brink of financial ruin. They have no idea how to get us out of Iraq. They have no idea how the economy works. They think $5 a gallon gas is O.K. Their chief spokesperson says continue the tax breaks for the upper incomers permanently. While their partners in crime, the congress does nothing.

However, the Democratic Party has managed to make the fall election a toss-up.

The Clintons, ever the self-promoting, me-first Clintons have effectively shattered Obama’s candidacy by killing his credibility. They have even managed in the process to alienate the minority voter. However, they will most likely attempt to mollify Mr. Obama by offering him the vice-presidency, “the David Patterson Role.”

We have to thank Mr. Obama for his great run. For, in doing so, he has established how racist the country  is  the hording of power and consolidation of and maintaining the status quo. It has always been thus, but the Obama run has proven that.

Obama looks finished.

Another beautiful job by the Clintons.

Can he come back?

I doubt it.

He was so close, too.