WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2007. By the Armchair Analyst. (Edited) September 19, 2007: Interesting results to have a cup of tea with; Arnie Bernstein was down when I went to bed at 11:00.
But the numbers are very much along with the discussion we had yesterday; contrasting the difference between a poll and and an election comparatively.
There can be an majority of people in support of an outcome (a train station redevelopment), but unless that same sample represents the actual voters who decide the issue (which include uneven participation across a spectrum of voters), the results will not be identical.
So if more women, over 50 do not like a particular development, despite their husbands liking the same project, ultimately, the project goes nowhere because the minority in the first instance overcomes the majority in the actual voting.
In short, while the husbands blow hot air, and do not vote, their wives, who do vote, cast their ballots in a certain way.
Thus the "poll" is both correct and incorrect: it correctly logs voter opinion based on easily identified items, and then because an actual election might be twisted, more women than men participate, the results change.
The ultimate point is, the RFQ killed Arnie.
Yesterday was a long day; today will be longer..
About the results, I'm not too surprised. Candyce Corcoran did not do a thing. Nor did Arnie.
But the Request for Qualifications killed Arnie. And the stupid full-page ad did not help. By the city giving the Democrats a ready-made issue – the Request for Proposals – springing it on them and including a 30-day reply date --the Dems were able to tie Bernstein to supporting the RFQ.
( WPCNR notes: Councilman Benjamin Boykin one of the victors last night even confirmed unasked to WPCNR that the council will not consider any qualifications coming from the RFQ, the Request for Qualifications for potential Redevelopers of the White Plains Railroad Station Urban Renewal property)
RFQ ultimately could turn the city against Cappelli because the city’s push on the RFQ, on top of the clandestine exclusivity agreement In the spring. That is what killed Arnie. They did not understand the difference between an opinion poll and a post election poll.
Who votes, and their opinion, counts. A majority may approve of a project, but if they do not vote, hard knocks results.
Women, over 50, do not support development without checks. Their husbands might, but you would have to be an idiot to believe that really matters.
Both from a happy marriage point of view and that of a political analysis.
