WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2007. By The Armchair Analyst (Edited) September 17, 2007 UPDATED 3:45 PM EDT: The polls on Democratic Primary Day open in White Plains Tuesday morning at 6 AM at all 43 of White Plains regular polling places.  Only registered Democrats may vote.

Registered Democrats will have their choice of  Arnold Bernstein, Benjamin Boykin, Candyce Corcoran, Melagros Lecuona, and Dennis Power. Boykin and Power are incumbent Councilpersons and the nominated by Democratic City Committee choices. Lecuona is a newcomer nominated by the Committee this year. Corcoran is a well-known crusading Democrat who has worked tirelessly for numerous causes throughout the city and has been denied twice an opportunity to run for Council. Mr. Bernstein is an incumbent Councilperson bidding for a second term who was denied renomination by the party and is fighting for his political career.

One observer of the uncomfortable, and increasingly cantankerous Democratic contests with accusatory mailings arriving daily, had this to say about keys to the race, the Analyst has also taken our earlier article to a new level, showing the actual numbers for the 2002 Adam Bradley White Plains vote canvas, showing the actual demographics of who votes in Democratic Primaries:

The election Tuesday, one veteran political observer, whom we shall call The Armchair Analyst,  notes is going to be based on the demographics of the turnout, in county wide Democratic primaries held in 2003 and 2006.

Older People Are the Voters.

The Armchair Analyst notes that in the 2003 and 2006 (not just 2003, the Analyst points out, as we first wrote),  Democratic Primaries (with no councilpersons primarying), 842 White Plains  "hard core Primary" Democrats turned out to vote, and the Analyst reports that 52% (442) were over the age of 65, and of that 52%, two-thirds were women.  Another 42% of the Democrats were over the age of 70, and two-thirds of them were women. The key factor: the voting demographic is older, and two-thirds are women. The key issues with them are security and taxes. Our Analyst notes that only 40 of the 842 White Plains Democrats were under 40 years of age, and only 133 were under age 50.

The bottom line: the hardest core Democrats, our Analyst points out in 2003 and 2006, the voters were “overwhelmingly” women over age 65.

In 2006, an offyear race the analyst reports, 7,744 Democrats turned out to vote Countywide. Of those 7,744, 62% were women; 66% were over age 50, and 62% of those were women.

Most striking, the Armchair Analyst reports, only 489 voters were under the age of 30 (a mere 6.3%). Young voters? Not many. Only 137 voters were under the age of 25 (1.76%).

Over half the voters in the 2006 primary were over age 50.

In both races, the Analyst reports the voters were “predominantly white, either catholic, protestant, or Jewish.” These are the voters he calls the "super primes" folks who came out for BOTH primaries, not just one.

The 2003 Count On Its Own.

For 2003 alone,  the total Democratic  Primary Vote was  1390 and the number of women voting was 872 (62.7%), 1021 of the total voters were above the age of 50 (73%).

Of that number over 50, The Analyst reports, 652 were women (63.8%).

Above 60 were a total of 703 voters (50.57%), and of that number, 450 were women (64%).

Above 70 were 424 voters. (30.5 % of the total vote), and of that number, 277 were women (65.3%)

Under 30: 44 voters, of that number 25 were women (56.8%) Under 30  represents only 3% of the total votes cast.

Under 25: 29 voters, of that number 18 were women (62%). Under 25  represents only 2% of the vote.

Inside the Adam Bradley White Plains Primary Vote Count.

In the Adam Bradley Primary Race in 2002, where Mr. Bradley defeated Naomi Matusow by 22 votes, was by contrast 2,376  White Plains voters voted in a race that mattered to White Plains. So even in that race, WPCNR notes that 986 more voters turned out to support "a favorite son."

The 2002 Primary Race that made Adam Bradley the Assemblyman for the 89th District shows the following -- almost two-thirds of the voters (61%) were women and they made up 62% of the voters over 60.  More telling is that that  70% of the White Plains primary voters were over age 50 (1,672 of 2,376, and 1,018 of the 50-somethings were women.. Here is the Breakdown:

2376 total voters went to the polls.

Of that number, 1447 were women (61%)

Total voters above the age of 50: 1672 (70%)

Of that number, 1018 were women (60.8% of the class)

Total voters above the age of 60: 1042 (43.8%)

Of that number, 646 were women (62%).

Total voters above the age of 70: 616 (26%)

Of that number, 383 were women (62%)

Younger than 30: 90 voters (3.7%) 53 were women (58%)

Younger than 25: 10 voters (.42% of the vote) 7 were women (70% of that
class)

The Analyst notes that only 4% of the entire vote in the 2002 when a younger candidate was running, was under 30. He considers it a sad comment on the young residents of White Plains

What does this mean?

The Armchair Analyst warns the base voters today will be women, retired or semi-retired, aged 50 to 65 with concerns about property taxes and personal safety issues. The Analyst draws a picture of a women voters who have raised families in White Plains and are not “transplants.” He says “anything that keeps their taxes low while not interfering with their lifestyle will be supported.” Our source describes them as living in the outer neighborhoods of the city with knowledge of local issues and an awareness of Mr. Bernstein and the Common Council personalities.

The Armchair Analyst predicts that Bernstein fits the base best. Ms. Lecuona the least.

The Analyst gives Corcoran a chance because she is “in the middle of the base: a woman, white, a name that could be Catholic, or Jewish, a history of community activity.”

The Analyst rates Boykin a toss-up, because he does “not fit the base too well, either, but he has name recognition and has served a long time. Arnie, however, has that same name recognition and fits the base.”

Power. The Analyst sees him as “a wild card”. But, notes Power lost 1,400 Democrat votes when he ran for Mayor in 2005, when Power lost to Mayor Joseph Delfino by slightly over 2,000 votes. And only about half the Democrats voted in that election, so Power simply did not galvanize them.

The Analyst picks Bernstein to win a seat, with a toss-up as to whether Corcoran has done enough to get her petition signers to the polls in her third single-handed attempt to run for Common Council and can slip past Boykin or Power to secure the Democratic Line. Corcoran will still be in the hunt in November on the Conservative Line.

The analyst likes her possibilities  “I think she can beat Boykin. Her profile is better. She got signatures from well over a thousand Democrats, (if she was smart, she should have focused on getting signatures from Superprimes. Power survives only because Ben (Boykin) is a weaker candidate as compared to Corcoran.”

City Committee Must Have Its Slate Win Big.

The analyst, a veteran election tracker, thinks the White Plains Democratic City Committee does not realize the “grave risk” they have taken. “If Arnie wins and Holy Moses, Candyce Corcoran, the leadership is sunk. The leadership has really forgotten what their role really is: finding the best candidates whose focus is on what is best for White Plains, not their own political fiefdoms."

The analyst  sighed,  "Adam Bradley holding up the sales tax, so he can vet the financials of the city while Boykin is head of the Budget Committee and Rita the Council President? Absurd. If the tax will keep the property taxes of residents down, he should have made damn sure it was passed at the earliest possible time. Politics, not policy, is running the show here in White Plains, as any knowledgeable observer should note.”

WPCNR is not making any predictions, but implores all the "Real Voters all 14,000 or so Democrats to come on out and vote. As the talk show host Bob Grant used to say, "Your opinion counts. Use it!"