WPCNR SCHOOL DAYS. By John F. Bailey. December 2, 2005: The Superintendent of Schools Timothy Connors issued 10 year projected enrollment figures for the White Plains City School District as of October 1 at Monday evening’s bi-monthly meeting of the Board of Education, describing it as “Kind of holding at the elementary level. A little growth at the Middle School, and growth at the high school.”
At this point, the projections show that White Plains will be operating at district facility capacity for the next decade if projections hold true.
Connors reported that the New York State Education Department is considering requiring All Day Kindergarten as mandatory throughout the state, but that would not affect White Plains because the School District implemented that policy last year. He did say that one factor that would impact White Plains elementary school enrollment and facilities was the possibility that the State Education Department is considering making Pre-School Education compulsory if only you have the space. That would definitely affect us, Connors said, but he did not indicate when compulsory pre school might be implemented by the state.
“If there are any new programs put in place (by the state or White Plains),” Connors said, “We have no space.”
Growth Sources
Connors noted that the growth in the White Plains High School population comes from more students staying for a fifth year at the high school to complete their diploma, and more students coming into the district at the high school level.
From a demographics perspective, Connors said the African-American population in the district is declining, while the number of Hispanic students is increasing. The Hispanic population in the high school counts for 20% of the student body, and 17% at the elementary level.
Connors said he was asking the City of White Plains to provide the School District with the ethnicity of births in the city for the last three years, so the district could get a better perspective on what the actual enrollment pressures might be expected on the elementary school capacities, (which he described as at capacity now), by the school year 2007-2008.
He said the number of young Hispanic families was going up, and he wanted to verify that by actual city birth figures.
Impacts
Referring to class size, he said that presently the average class size in the elementary schools is 19-20. If elementary population projects to grow in three years, that ratio might be affected, as well as the capacity of the schools. Connors said that it takes about five years to build any new school. “You can’t wait until the last minute (to adjust to increases in enrollment).”
Asked by William Pollak, Board member, if there was evidence that new residents coming to the new apartments and condominiums opening in White Plains, were adding students, Connors said “The city does not see (the number of ) young families moving in increasing.”
In an enrollment study executed for the district by Bishop Associates, Inc. at a cost of $800, handed out to WPCNR, some interesting numbers emerge:
Less than 1% Growth in Enrollment over next 5 years
According to the projected enrollment figures, total enrollment by 2010-2011 is expected to reach 6,914, an increase of .7%.
High school enrollment (now at 1,939 in 2005-06) is projected to increase over the next three years 1,956 in 06-07; 1,965 in 07-08, 1,970 in 08-09; then erode to 1,970 by 2008-2009, then decline to 1,899 by 2010-11, then hover between the low 1,800s up to 1,900 by 2015-16.
In the elementary schools, in 2005-2006 there are 2,758 students in grades K through 5 (an average of 552 students per elementary school. This number is projected to increase to 3,041 by 2010-11, putting 608 students in each elementary school, barring an unexpected influx of elementary age children.
Can the Elementaries handle the Growth?
For a reference, according to the school calendar for 2005-2006, this 608-student-per school capacity required by 2010-11 appears sustainable by the present elementary school capacity lineup based on the current enrollments. Church Street School based on the school calendar figures is home this year to 604 students; George Washington School, 648; Mamaroneck Avenue School, 606; Post Road School, 478; and Ridgeway School, 627.
In the middle school (grades 6,7,8) the present enrollment is 1,378 according to the study (however actual school calendar enrollment figures indicate the middle school total is 1,558.) This figure is expected to decrease over the next five years by about 90 students to 1,288 by 2010-2011.
Middle School Enrollment to grow from 2011-12 to 2015-2016.
However the Middle School projection from 2011-12 through 2015-2016 takes an upswing (stemming from the elementary school increase over the next five years. Enrollment at the two ancient middle schools (Highlands and Eastview) is expected to rise from 1,288 in 2010-2011, to 1,320, 1,326, 1,347, 1,403 to 1,443 in 2015-1016. That 1,443 projection is an increase of 155 over the last five years of the decade. But, considering the Middle School is according to this year's School Calendar
already at 1,558. The projections show the aging Middle Schools are going to be at or near capacity for the next ten years.
Slightly more enrollment increases from 2011 to 2015.
Total Enrollment is expected to grow from 6,762 in 2005-06, to 6,914 in 2010-11, with the growth coming in the elementary school level. However, Bill Pollak said you had to add 178 to that base figure of 6,762 to reach the present enrollment of 6,940, which would grow with the additional 178 to 7092 in 2010-11. There was no explanation why the projected study was short the 178. However, the projection trend of the study still is considered valid.
Connors said, “The (present) high school (enrollment) numbers are in line with the numbers we used to plan that (2000 high school expansion) project.”
The Bishop Associates Study notes that for the five years from 2005-2006 to 2010, enrollment increases will average .4% or 30 students per year, and from 2011 to 2015, enrollment increases will ascend to .9% or about 61 students per year.
