WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2005 COMMENTARY. By John F. Bailey. October 29, 2005: The phone call began innocently enough, Saturday at noon, the caller saying they were calling from a National Research organization, asking  if the resident receiving the call would answer a few questions.

As campaigns come to a climax, well-heeled candidates, especially incumbents and challengers alike evaluate their messages as the election gets closer. Strategists, based on the results of polls going into the final week,  may decide they need to do something dramatic or devastating to the opponent. Sometimes this means going “negative,” or what used to be called a “smear.” By going negative at last minute the opponent has no time  to counteract the knockout punch to his or her character, experience, arrest record, integrity or ethnicity.

Who’s Calling Please?

Of course the Delfino machine has money to pay for a poll, but so does County Executive Andy Spano and County Legislator Bill Ryan. Since the questions in this poll (our correspondents received today), deal with voter preferences in the Mayoral Race in White Plains, do not concern the County Executive race, the legislator race, Governor Pataki, the D.A. race, it would be reasonable to assume that the poll is being conducted by one of the two White Plains Mayoral candidates.

 Since the Power campaign is underfunded, with less than $40,000 in their till at the start, and a poll such as this can cost about $10,000 and the Republican side has a war chest of about quarter of a million dollars, it might be logical to assume the Republican side is trying to decide if their standard bearer, Mayor Joseph Delfino is comfortably ahead or in danger, because the Republicans can afford it.

Based on what they find, the Republican side  may decide to get tough with the Dennis Power candidacy with one last devastating mailing on election weekend.

The poll appears to ask questions to find out Democrat voter tendencies and attempts to elicit whether Democratic voters are going to vote. Why? Well if the Republicans are doing the poll, they need to know that. Mayor Delfino needs a significant crossover vote from the Democratic side.  The poll also asks whether the registered voter thinks Mayor Delfino deserves to be reelected.

The poll appears not to tell the Democrats anything that that they don't already know. (What? that Delfino is tough to beat? They knew that. That's perhaps why they put up such a strong candidate as Dennis Power at the last moment.)

The poll seems tailored to Republican concerns. It will measure the impact of what the Republican “positive brochures” have been having in the campaign, and whether Dennis Power has name recognition, or should they change campaign tactics.

Questions that Gauge the Mood.

The poll begins asking the recipient whether they think the country, the state and the city of White Plains are  “on the right track,” then asks whether the resident called thinks Mayor Delfino “has done a good job and deserves to be reelected.”

Then the questioning turns to Dennis Power, and  asks how the voter feels about Dennis Power, and where they view him favorably or unfavorably.

The poll runs down the six Common Council candidates and asks the voter which would they be likely to vote for and concludes with a question on whether the voter plans to vote in the November 8 Mayoral election.

The Knockout Punch You Never See Coming 

What will the Republicans do if the Democrats are close?

WPCNR recalls such a strategy was employed successfully by the Republicans against Mayoral Candidate Bill Brown in 1997. WPCNR remembers the Republican Campaign sent out a brochure showing Mr. Delfino and Mr. Brown together on the same page, making subtlely sure, among other things that voters knew Mr. Brown was an African-American, and Mr. Delfino was white. 

When I saw the Delfino-Brown flyer of the 97 campaign, my first reaction was it was one of the most shameless plays of “the race card” I ever saw.  

WPCNR has also learned that an attack effort was prepared to be used against Robert Greer in the 2001 Mayoral Race, but the party decided not to use it, feeling they were comfortably ahead. Mr. Greer lost by over a thousand votes.

There is a problem with going negative though. It could backfire. Always a risk. Negativity appeals to fears like crime, losing your investment, people you do not like, policies you cannot stand, and it will always sway the conservative voter. Or, it could be a surprise announcement from Mayor Delfino of a significant solving of a city crisis or policy situation that could tip the balance positively.

So, if no “Delfino Mud Missile” is launched against Mr. Power by this coming weekend before election, you might assume the Delfino camp feels the Mayor is going to coast to victory, (if I am right in my hunch that the Republicans are doing this poll).

 If you see a “Power Take Out” brocure castigating Mr. Power and playing on fears, then you might assume that the race is too close for Mr. Delfino’s comfort, and every vote counts.

A POWER BLOW?

What could Dennis Power do if it is his poll, short of announcing Moody's will remove the negative outlook because of Mr. Del Vecchio's and Mr. Schulman's financial credentials, I do not see much, unless they have uncovered something about Mr. Delfino regarding health matters, and his ability to serve. But given Mr. Greer's present personal situation, that seems unlikely.  But considering they have ignored documented Delfino doings that they could have attacked, I cannot see them doing any kind of attack at this late stage. 

No matter what, Mr. Power, (marshalling Mayors Alfred Del Vecchio and Sy Schulman into has camp, not withstanding), has run a campaign with perhaps too little too late. He has campaigned "nicely" and not attacked on key issues like integrity, cover-ups, and rigged contracts, among other things. Just enough to look like his campaign is serious, but perhaps a little short.

A lot of questions.

The Democratic Party is campaigning just enough the last few weeks to keep the U.S. Attorney’s Office away from a rigged election investigation, or are they?

Where is a media blitz from the Westchester Democratic Party coffers, Andy Spano's coffers? Where are the Andy Spano, arms-around-Dennis Power's-shoulder spots? 

Why aren't the Common Councilpersons who are Democrats campaigning hard for Power? Where are the telephone messages from Democratic Councilpersons urging Democrats to get out and vote for Power? How can Tom Roach say as much that the financial crisis has been weathered when his Mayoral Candidate is banging hard on mismanagement of finances on the same dais??? (I loved that gaffe.)

Next Time Bring Commitment to the Table.

Several truisms can be learned from this campaign if you are going to run for Mayor of White Plains, you have to have a lot money.  You have to find a message that will resonate with the voters.  You have to be relentless, start early and put up a strong candidate and give enough time to get the message across. And, you cannot be "Mr. Nice Guy."

You have to appear to be a nice guy as Mayor Delfino is excellent at role-playing, but be prepared to use the brass knuckles, which Mr. Delfino and his administration are very willing to do and will not hesitate to do so.

One more thing: You have to want to win. Your Party has to want you to win. 

The Republicans want to win.